Acta Informatica Pragensia 2023, 12(2), 400-418 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aip.2242600

Safe Haven for Asian Equity Markets During Financial Distress: Bitcoin Versus Gold

Pham Thi Ngoc Dung ORCID...1, Luong Kim Long ORCID...1, Le Ngoc Thuy Trang ORCID...2, Do Thi Thanh Nhan ORCID...1
1 Faculty of Finance and Banking, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
2 Faculty of Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlín, Czech Republic

This study aims to analyse the role of bitcoin and gold as safe haven assets for Asian equity markets during periods of high market uncertainty related to the global COVID-19 pandemic, high volatility and extreme stock market conditions. Our empirical analysis employs the DCC-GARCH methodology to estimate the time-varying relationship between bitcoin/gold and the Asian stock market from 2016 to 2023. Our findings reveal that bitcoin serves as a strong hedge for Taiwan and Pakistan, whereas gold can be considered a strong hedge for Japan, Singapore, India, Thailand and Vietnam. Interestingly, we observe that bitcoin does not exhibit safe haven properties in any of the Asian countries observed. In contrast, gold demonstrates strong safe haven abilities for Singapore, India and Thailand. These results remain consistent across various measures of market turmoil, including the volatility index, COVID-19-related periods and low quantiles on the stock market. Furthermore, our results suggest that the perception and adoption of gold as a safe haven asset in Japan and Vietnam is mainly influenced by global events and uncertainties, rather than localized stock market conditions. These findings offer valuable information for investors, financial institutions as well as policy makers and regulators as to how cryptocurrency and gold have evolved as hedge and safe haven assets in Asia during uncertainty periods.

Keywords: Hedge; Safe haven; Cryptocurrency; Gold; Covid-19; Investment; VIX.

Received: April 29, 2023; Revised: August 27, 2023; Accepted: September 3, 2023; Prepublished online: September 11, 2023; Published: October 10, 2023  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Thi Ngoc Dung, P., Long, L.K., Le Ngoc, T.T., & Thi Thanh Nhan, D. (2023). Safe Haven for Asian Equity Markets During Financial Distress: Bitcoin Versus Gold. Acta Informatica Pragensia12(2), 400-418. doi: 10.18267/j.aip.224
Download citation

References

  1. Al-Nassar, N. S., Boubaker, S., Chaibi, A., & Makram, B. (2023). In search of hedges and safe havens during the COVID─19 pandemic: Gold versus Bitcoin, oil, and oil uncertainty. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 90, 318-332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.10.010 Go to original source...
  2. Al-Yahyaee, K. H., Mensi, W., Al-Jarrah, I. M. W., Hamdi, A., & Kang, S. H. (2019). Volatility forecasting, downside risk, and diversification benefits of Bitcoin and oil and international commodity markets: A comparative analysis with yellow metal. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 49, 104-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.04.001 Go to original source...
  3. Anand, R., & Madhogaria, S. (2012). Is Gold a 'Safe-Haven'? - An Econometric Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 1, 24-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(12)00005-6 Go to original source...
  4. Baur, D. G., Hong, K. H., & Lee, A. D. (2018). Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 54, 177-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.12.004 Go to original source...
  5. Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x Go to original source...
  6. Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008 Go to original source...
  7. Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.044 Go to original source...
  8. Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1996). The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109844 Go to original source...
  9. Bouri, E., & Azzi, G. (2017). On the Return-Volatility Relationship in the Bitcoin Market around the Price Crash of 2013. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2869855 Go to original source...
  10. Bouri, E., Gupta, R., Tiwari, A. K., & Roubaud, D. (2017). Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions. Finance Research Letters, 23, 87-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.02.009 Go to original source...
  11. Bouri, E., Molnár, P., Azzi, G., Roubaud, D., & Hagfors, L. I. (2017). On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier? Finance Research Letters, 20, 192-198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.09.025 Go to original source...
  12. Bouri, E., Shahzad, S. J. H., Roubaud, D., Kristoufek, L., & Lucey, B. (2020). Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as safe havens for stocks: New insight through wavelet analysis. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 77, 156-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2020.03.004 Go to original source...
  13. Bredin, D., Conlon, T., & Potì, V. (2015). Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 320-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.010 Go to original source...
  14. Chemkha, R., BenSaïda, A., Ghorbel, A., & Tayachi, T. (2021). Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 82, 71-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.07.006 Go to original source...
  15. Choi, S., & Shin, J. (2022). Bitcoin: An inflation hedge but not a safe haven. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102379 Go to original source...
  16. Ciner, C., Gurdgiev, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2013). Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 202-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2012.12.001 Go to original source...
  17. Conlon, T., Corbet, S., & McGee, R. J. (2020). Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic. Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101248 Go to original source...
  18. Feng, W., Wang, Y., & Zhang, Z. (2018). Can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven: A tail risk perspective analysis. Applied Economics, 50(44), 4745-4762. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1466993 Go to original source...
  19. He, Z., O'Connor, F., & Thijssen, J. (2018). Is gold a Sometime Safe Haven or an Always Hedge for equity investors? A Markov-Switching CAPM approach for US and UK stock indices. International Review of Financial Analysis, 60, 30-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.08.010 Go to original source...
  20. Hussain Shahzad, S. J., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., & Kristoufek, L. (2020). Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin. Economic Modelling, 87, 212-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.07.023 Go to original source...
  21. Ji, Q., Zhang, D., & Zhao, Y. (2020). Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 71, 101526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101526 Go to original source...
  22. Klein, T., Pham Thu, H., & Walther, T. (2018). Bitcoin is not the New Gold - A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance. International Review of Financial Analysis, 59, 105-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.07.010 Go to original source...
  23. Kliber, A., Marszałek, P., Musiałkowska, I., & ¦wierczyńska, K. (2019). Bitcoin: Safe haven, hedge or diversifier? Perception of bitcoin in the context of a country's economic situation - A stochastic volatility approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 524, 246-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.145 Go to original source...
  24. Kristoufek, L. (2015). What Are the Main Drivers of the Bitcoin Price? Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Analysis. PLOS ONE, 10(4), e0123923. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123923 Go to original source...
  25. Kumar, A. S., & Padakandla, S. R. (2022). Testing the safe-haven properties of gold and bitcoin in the backdrop of COVID-19: A wavelet quantile correlation approach. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102707 Go to original source...
  26. Li, S., & Lucey, B. M. (2017). Reassessing the role of precious metals as safe havens-What colour is your haven and why? Journal of Commodity Markets, 7, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.05.003 Go to original source...
  27. Liu, M., & Lee, C.-C. (2022). Is gold a long-run hedge, diversifier, or safe haven for oil? Empirical evidence based on DCC-MIDAS. Resources Policy, 76, 102703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102703 Go to original source...
  28. Lucey, B. M., Sharma, S. S., & Vigne, S. A. (2017). Gold and inflation(s) - A time-varying relationship. Economic Modelling, 67, 88-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.10.008 Go to original source...
  29. Luther, W. J., & Salter, A. W. (2017). Bitcoin and the bailout. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 50-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.01.009 Go to original source...
  30. Nguyen, K. Q. (2022). The correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin during COVID-19 and other uncertainty periods. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102284 Go to original source...
  31. Ober, M., Katzenbeisser, S., & Hamacher, K. (2013). Structure and Anonymity of the Bitcoin Transaction Graph. Future Internet, 5(2), 237-250. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi5020237 Go to original source...
  32. Polasik, M., Piotrowska, A. I., Wisniewski, T. P., Kotkowski, R., & Lightfoot, G. (2015). Price Fluctuations and the Use of Bitcoin: An Empirical Inquiry. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 20(1), 9-49. https://doi.org/10.1080/10864415.2016.1061413 Go to original source...
  33. PwC. (2022). 4th Annual Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report 2022. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/pdf/4th-annual-global-crypto-hedge-fund-report-june-2022.pdf
  34. Ratner, M., & Chiu, C.-C. (2013). Hedging Stock Sector Risk with Credit Default Swaps (SSRN Scholarly Paper 2631068). https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2631068 Go to original source...
  35. Reboredo, J. C. (2013). Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements? Resources Policy, 38(2), 130-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.02.003 Go to original source...
  36. Selmi, R., Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., & Bouoiyour, J. (2018). Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold. Energy Economics, 74, 787-801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.007 Go to original source...
  37. Shahzad, S. J. H., Balli, F., Naeem, M. A., Hasan, M., & Arif, M. (2022). Do conventional currencies hedge cryptocurrencies? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 85, 223-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.01.008 Go to original source...
  38. Shahzad, S. J. H., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., Kristoufek, L., & Lucey, B. (2019). Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities? International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 322-330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.01.002 Go to original source...
  39. Smales, L. A. (2019). Bitcoin as a safe haven: Is it even worth considering? Finance Research Letters, 30, 385-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.11.002 Go to original source...
  40. Smutny, Z., Sulc, Z., & Lansky, J. (2021). Motivations, Barriers and Risk-Taking When Investing in Cryptocurrencies. Mathematics, 9(14), Article 1655. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141655 Go to original source...
  41. Urquhart, A., & Zhang, H. (2019). Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 49-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.02.009 Go to original source...
  42. Wang, G., Tang, Y., Xie, C., & Chen, S. (2019). Is bitcoin a safe haven or a hedging asset? Evidence from China. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 4(3), 173-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmse.2019.09.001 Go to original source...
  43. Wen, X., & Cheng, H. (2018). Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar? Emerging Markets Review, 35, 69-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2017.12.006 Go to original source...
  44. World Gold Council. (2023). The relevance of gold as a strategic asset. https://www.reuters.com/plus/the-relevance-of-gold-as-a-strategic-asset-2022
  45. Wu, S., Tong, M., Yang, Z., & Derbali, A. (2019). Does gold or Bitcoin hedge economic policy uncertainty? Finance Research Letters, 31, 171-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.04.001 Go to original source...
  46. Yang, C., Wang, X., & Gao, W. (2022). Is Bitcoin a better hedging and safe-haven investment than traditional assets against currencies? Evidence from the time-frequency domain approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 62, 101747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101747 Go to original source...
  47. Yelowitz, A., & Wilson, M. (2015). Characteristics of Bitcoin users: An analysis of Google search data. Applied Economics Letters, 22(13), 1030-1036. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.995359 Go to original source...
  48. Yousaf, I., Plakandaras, V., Bouri, E., & Gupta, R. (2023). Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 64, 101844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101844 Go to original source...
  49. Zagaglia, P., & Marzo, M. (2013). Gold and the U.S. dollar: Tales from the turmoil. Quantitative Finance, 13(4), 571-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2012.708431 Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.