Acta Informatica Pragensia 2024, 13(3), 418-432 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aip.2503539

Investigating the Causes of Non-realization of Project Prediction and Proposal of a New Prediction Framework

Radek Doskočil ORCID...1, Branislav Lacko ORCID...2
1 Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno, Czech Republic
2 Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Brno University of Technology, Brno, Czech Republic

The main goal of the paper is to identify the causes of non-realization of project prediction and to propose a new framework for project prediction. A secondary goal is to explain why the approaches to project prediction used currently do not provide satisfactory results. The research was realised in the form of qualitative research using semi-structured interviews. The findings reveal that the main causes of non-realization of project prediction are follows: there is no methodology that could be practically used; simplified approaches to project prediction usually have low reliability for which reason they are generally unusable; suitable input data and information for project prediction are not available. The main contribution made by the paper is the identification of causes of non-realization of project prediction and the proposal of a new framework for project prediction that respects changing conditions during the lifecycle of the project and changes in the way of thinking in project prediction. A prerequisite for its application is a functioning system of knowledge management in projects, including the realization of post-project analysis.

Keywords: Project management; Knowledge management; Project prediction; Finite automata; Markov chains.

Received: January 30, 2024; Revised: July 4, 2024; Accepted: July 20, 2024; Prepublished online: July 22, 2024; Published: August 22, 2024  Show citation

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Doskočil, R., & Lacko, B. (2024). Investigating the Causes of Non-realization of Project Prediction and Proposal of a New Prediction Framework. Acta Informatica Pragensia, 13(3), 418-432. doi: 10.18267/j.aip.250
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